Written by Kaitlin Kiernan for Advanced Sports Reporting at Auburn University in Spring 2020
Let’s imagine that you are Zion Williamson, a high school senior a little under two years ago. Going to classes for about six to seven hours a day, going to basketball practice and trying to have a normal social life. Little did he know, that two years later he would be facing off against one of the greatest basketball players to ever play the game, LeBron James.
In 2006, the National Basketball Association set in place a rule. This rule required players to be one year removed from high school before they were eligible to put their name into the NBA Draft. As a result of this, many of the nation’s elite basketball players have lost the opportunity to make the leap from high school straight to the NBA regardless of where they would be selected in the draft process. These players have become known as one-and-dones.
The one-and-dones have what is believed to be a major impact on both the college game and the NBA for multiple reasons. This rule has caused a rapid increased in the number of college basketball players deciding to leave their universities after their freshman year. This can cause college coaches to question their recruiting choices, and if it is worth the risk to bring in a high-level athlete who will only be part of the team for a single season. But the attention that these athletes bring to the university can elevate the program both on and off the court. “A one-and-done superstar can lead a team to prominence, attracting new fans and revenue streams. On the other hand, losing your best player after only one year could cause a lack of cohesion and ultimately set a program back. The presence of one-and-done players might deter future recruits from joining a program, because of the threat of a sharp decline in talent or the potential lack of playing time,” says S. Brandon Fanney, author of the study “The Effect of One-and-Done Players on Division I Men’s College Basketball Programs.” Although a one-and-done player could elevate a program and revenue for a year, there is no promise that it will have a lasting impact. Based on research, after a one-and-done player leaves a program, there is a decrease in sales and attendance, no matter what university it is. The fans have little to no time to get familiar with the players and there is no chance for members of the team and staff to create long lasting relationships.
Joe Ferreira, Currently a contractor for the NFL and former Editor of CBSsports.com said, “I think the {professional} game will miss out on those mega superstars but the college game will stay the same because of the basics and it does not rely on superstars because there is so much passion for the brand and the school. The NBA is more player centric. In other words, you are a LeBron fan, or you are a Kevin Durant fan or a Stephen Curry fan. Since college is so team centric, I do not think the impact will be as great on their game.” College basketball has become about tradition and family at the universities and there are not as many player “bandwagon fans.” The game itself will not change as much, only the level of play and possible roster turnover.
Before the age limit was set in place by the NBA, college coaches had a good grasp on which athletes were going to be going pro, but now the challenge is deciding on whether they should select a player who will stay for a year or give a scholarship to a lower-star recruit that will stay in the program for three to four years and receive a diploma. This rule also makes university presidents evaluate what is going on within the programs as well, “University presidents are forced to sit back and watch 18-year-olds make the college institution merely a stepping-stone to fame and riches in the NBA,” says C. McGrath, author of the article “NBA age limit ushers in new era in college basketball. We can ask ourselves these questions: Does compromising the integrity of higher learning morally okay if it means more wins on the court or more money being pumped into the athletic department? If the answer to that is no, will a program be able to compete in a high-level of college basketball if one-and-done players (or higher star recruits) cannot have the best chance to make it to the NBA?
There have been possible solutions discussed throughout the NBA. Condoleezza Rice, former United States Secretary of State, led a committee that recommended to the NBA that they rid of the rule completely and they wanted it done soon. Ferreira said, “I think that young men should have a choice to pursue a career after high school rather than being held back based on arbitrary rule that the NBA has, and I think that will happen very soon.” Tim Sullivan, columnist and reporter at Courier Journal of Louisville said, “I think what I would like to see is if a player doesn’t get drafted, he should be able to go back to school and at least have that option. It doesn’t mean that, that’s the way it’s going to work. There were 233 players that filed for early entry to the NBA Draft last year including 175 from college and there are only 60 spots in the draft. Do the math.” Ferreira said the same, “My answer to this is that kids should be able to return to school, but they only have one shot at it. It cannot be that every year they enter into the draft and then come back. I would rather them test the waters and then maybe come back if their projected to go second round or something and then come back to school. Whether they can get a scholarship is a different story or if one is even available. Can schools hold a scholarship for someone who is in the draft? Those are all tough questions for an athletic director to answer. But I think there should be as much flexibility as possible for kids to attend school if they want to.”
There could be potential setbacks to a change in the current system. The challenge of making a big career decision is huge for an eighteen or nineteen-year-old athlete. This choice is made at an early age and it has a pronounced impact on the player’s well-being, his family and the culture of men’s basketball. “It’s the glamour of the NBA, the status and the money,” said Ferreira. “All of those certainly could be blinders. Keep in mind that these kids whole life or at least since middle school, have been told that they are great and that they are going to be in the NBA and then you actually have a chance at doing that you tend to go for it and a lot of them will be ready and some will not.” The thought of becoming a professional basketball player is something that every young player dreams of. When that dream has a possibility of becoming reality, it is difficult to pass up. “There’s a high incidence of players who were seduced by the appeal of the NBA and think they’re going to make it,” said Sullivan. “I do not have a number of how many players [that don’t do well in the NBA/not get drafted], but I am sure there’s an annual list you could compile that would have been better served both in terms of their education and their becoming better basketball players and better equipped to deal with pressures and the expectations of playing professionally if they spent another year in school.”
Another problem with the potential change is the value of traded draft picks throughout the past few years and how it will affect the picks in future drafts. “The problem is that NBA teams have traded draft picks,” said Ferreira. “Let’s say you are a New York Knicks fan and you trade away your first-round draft pick to get someone like Carmelo Anthony or whoever that player is going to be. You traded that away knowing you were going to have a certain player pool. If that player pool changes and now Zion Williamson is coming out of high school available and your draft pick is now more valuable, that is not necessarily fair to those teams who traded first round draft picks. So, my prediction is that the players and the league are going to wait until the 2022 draft to where kids can go directly from high school to the pros.”
According to Zion Williamson in a recent postgame interview, “the only difference between college and the NBA is that in college, you have a student section.” “He is a unique talent and you hear the words thrown around about generational talent, and that is what he is,” said Ferreira about Williamson. He has been the center of discussion regarding amateurism and been the face of the “name image and likeness” rule that is being discussed through the NCAA.
So, while Zion has become the face of the one and done rule, there are many other athletes who if given the chance, would without a doubt take opportunity to make the leap to the professional world and play in the NBA. Ridding of this rule could open up a lot of opportunities for young players to live their dream, but before decisions are made, all possible alternatives should be taken into account.